中俄能源合作对两国经济增长作用的实证探讨[俄语论文]

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动力是一国公民经济的根本支持,是公民经济可连续成长的血液和动力。我国动力产供才能不平衡,供需抵触日趋凸起,国际年夜部门的动力需求重要依附出口来知足,动力成绩已成为我国经济成长所面对的主要成绩与挑衅。为了更好地处理动力供需抵触、保证动力平安、完成公民经济的可连续成长,我国必需运用同俄罗斯之间交际关系优越、具有地缘优势等有益前提,积极展开同俄罗斯之间的动力协作,争夺其更多的协作意向与出口份额。今朝中俄的动力协作重要表现在原油、自然气、煤炭、电力等惯例范畴的协作,动力协作今朝曾经成为中俄经济协作范畴的主要内容,其实不断推进两边经济成长的程度。文章共分为五个部门。第一部门是绪论,这部门重要从选题的配景和意义动手,引见了国际外的研究现状,然后引见文章的研究办法和构造支配,最初论述本文的立异点和缺乏的地方。第二部门是中俄动力协作与中俄经济增加的概略,对于中俄动力协作的概略从商业协作和非商业协作两个方面来睁开,然后剖析了两国经济增加的概略,并对他们之间的联系关系停止了剖析。第三部门是本中俄动力协作对两国经济增加作用的实际剖析,从出口效应和出口效应两个方面剖析动力商业协作对经济增加的作用,经由过程直接剖析,得出非商业协作对两国经济增加的分歧作用。第四部门为文章的实证部门,运用向量自回归模子,树立以动力协作指数为基本的实际模子和以中俄动力商业量为基本的现实模子,将两个模子的成果停止比拟从其差别方面剖析得出两国动力的非商业协作对两国经济增加的分歧作用。第五部门为结论与政策建议,结论注解中俄动力协作与中俄两国经济增加的接洽亲密并对两国的经济增加具有增进感化。中俄动力商业协作对中国经济增加的说明水平高于非商业协作,中俄动力商业对俄罗斯经济增加的说明水平低于非商业协作;中俄动力商业协作对中国经济增加的增进感化年夜于对俄经济增加的增进感化,中俄动力非商业协作对俄经济增加的增进感化年夜于对中国经济增加的增进感化。最初提出政策建议,从而对中俄两国动力经贸协作的进一步成长,为中俄更好地树立互惠互利、协同成长的动力计谋同伴关系,为更好的摸索中俄动力协作的门路供给实际根据。

Abstract:

Driving force is the fundamental support of a country's civil economy, and it is the blood and power that the citizen economy can grow continuously. China's power supply can not balance, supply and demand conflict has become increasingly outstanding, the power demand of the international sector is mainly dependent on exports to meet, power performance has become China's economic growth in the face of major achievements and challenges. In order to better processing power supply and demand conflict, ensure energy security, complete citizen economy can grow continuously, our country must apply with communicative relationship between Russia and superiority, has geographical advantage good premise, actively expand dynamic cooperation with Russia, for the more intention to cooperate and share of exports. Current Sino Russian energy cooperation and important performance in crude oil, natural gas, coal, electricity and other practice areas of collaboration and dynamic collaborative today has become the main contents of the Sino Russian Economic Cooperation category, in fact continue to promote economic growth on both sides of the degree. The article is divided into five departments. The first part is the introduction, this important sector from the background and significance of the topic for hands-on, introduced the home and abroad research status, then introduce the research method and structure control, first discusses the innovation and the lack of local. The second part is a compendium of China Russia energy cooperation between China and Russia in the economic increase, compendium about the Sino Russian energy cooperation from two aspects of collaborative business and non business collaboration to open. Secondly, the author analyzed the compendium of bilateral economic increase, and the relationship between them are analyzed. The third sector is the China Russia energy cooperation on bilateral economic to increase the impact of the actual analysis, from two aspects of export and export effect analysis of dynamic business cooperation on the economic growth effect, through the process of direct analysis, obtained differences impact of the non business collaboration of bilateral economic increase. In the fourth part, the empirical sector, application of vector autoregressive model, establish the dynamic index of cooperation is a basic physical model and basic realistic models, with Russia and China power business volume, the results of two model stop match from the difference analysis of non-commercial impetus to bilateral cooperation on bilateral economic increasing differences affect. The fifth section is the conclusion and policy suggestion, which concludes that the dynamic cooperation between China and Russia is closely related to the economic growth of China and Russia and the economic growth of the two countries. Sino Russian energy business collaboration of Chinese economy increase description level higher than that of non business collaboration, Sino Russian energy business of Russian economy increased the explanation level lower than non business collaboration; collaboration of China Russia energy business to China's economic increase increase big effect to the Russian economy increased the stimulative action, the Sino Russian energy non business collaboration of Russian economic increase increase big effect on China's economy increased the stimulative action. Originally proposed policy recommendations, thereby further growth of China Russia impetus to bilateral economic and trade cooperation, for the establishment of a Sino Russian better mutual benefit and coordinated growth of dynamic strategic partnership for better exploration of China Russia energy cooperation opportunities to supply theory on which it is based.

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